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Today is St Patrick's Day. There are many myths and legends surrounding Patrick, but thankfully he left us several writings. The most famous writing of all is the Confessio of St Patrick which speaks of his life and spiritual journey. The Confessio is available here in the original Latin, English, Irish, German, and Italian.  Happy St Patrick's Day!

On Saturday I had the great privilege of contributing to the Glasgow Economic Forum , which is an annual event run by and for undergraduate students at the Adam Smith Business School at the University of Glasgow. I gave a lecture about my book Banking in Crisis and was part of a panel discussion (along with Nick Crafts, Catherine Schenk and Duncan Ross - see picture below) on the benefits of economic history to economics.  I was really impressed by the level of debate and discussion - it was great to see so many (200+) young minds thinking deeply about economics. Furthermore, it was great to see so many young economists thinking about the discipline and thinking about the discipline in a heterodox manner. A lot of pressure has come from students on the economics profession to change the economics curriculum and make it heterodox or pluralist. A similar society to the Glasgow Economic Forum, called the Post-Crash Economics Society , exists at the University of Manchester.  ...

The Dow Jones and FTSE 100 reached record levels on Friday. The Dow Jones is just shy of 20,000 - see FT video below. At the start of each year, pundits  offer up their predictions for the year ahead. The consensus view seems to be that the US and UK markets are probably overvalued and that by the start of 2018, the Dow and FTSE will be at +/- 5%. from their current levels. However, we have no idea what 2017 is going to bring! Two things will have a major bearing on stock markets in 2017 - politics (Trump, Russia, euro, the French election, Turkey etc) and central bank decisions regarding interest rates. It might be a bumpy year for markets.

2016 has been a year of surprises. Who could have predicted the events which happened over the course of the year! In terms of the economic and financial system, here is my top 10 major events. Many of them are related and some are less serious than others! 1. The election of Donald Trump 2. Brexit 3. The strong US dollar 4. The Italian banking woes 5. The European Commission's Apple tax ruling 6. The Celtic Tiger on Angel Dust - the 26% growth in Ireland's GDP ! 7. The Bank of England reducing interest rates to 0.25% 8. Economists being dismissed in a post-truth and anti-expert world 9. 720% inflation in Venezuela 10. Demonetisation of 500 and 1,000 rupee notes in India No doubt many will disagree with this list, and I possibly have forgotten some other key events, but these 10 grabbed my attention. Anyhow, I wish all my blog readers a merry Christmas and every blessing for 2017! Below is my favourite Christmas economics song - Deck the Halls with Macro Follies.

Economics played a major role in the victory of Donald Trump. Rising income and wealth inequality has meant that median incomes in real terms in the U.S. have been stagnant for four decades and those in the middle income deciles of the income distribution have been squeezed. The causes of this inequality have been blamed on global trade agreements, immigration, and off-shoring.  There has also been a hollowing out effect due to technological change – routine jobs such as bank clerks have been computerised – which has had a negative effect on middle class wages. Trump’s constituency is largely comprised of this squeezed middle. The big question about Trump’s economic policy is whether he will stay true to his constituency. If he does, we can expect the rolling back of trade deals, the introduction of tariffs, trade wars with China, and limits on immigration. However, before the world loses sleep over this, we need to remember that Trump is a businessman and his outlandish suggestion...

History plays a very important role in society. It connects us to our ancestors and where we have come from. History also plays a very important role in helping us navigate the present and future. History helps us understand economics, national  politics, and geopolitics. Political and business leaders need a thorough and rounded education in history. But it appears that they are not getting it. Niall  Ferguson in the provocative video below explains why this is the case. In effect, he claims that university history departments are in the process of making themselves irrelevant because political, social and economic history are being squeezed out of the curriculum by anachronistic and politically correct history courses.